Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France
| dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | PAIREAU, Juliette | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM] | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | CHARPIGNON, Marie-Laure | |
| dc.contributor.author | LARRIEU, Sophie | |
| dc.contributor.author | CALBA, Clementine | |
| dc.contributor.author | HOZE, Nathanael | |
| dc.contributor.author | BOELLE, Pierre-Yves | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM] | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | THIEBAUT, Rodolphe | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM] | |
| hal.structure.identifier | Bordeaux population health [BPH] | |
| dc.contributor.author | PRAGUE, Melanie | |
| dc.contributor.author | CAUCHEMEZ, Simon | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-05-15T09:54:19Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-05-15T09:54:19Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-03-30 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1471-2334 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/182121 | |
| dc.description.abstractEn | BACKGROUND: Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels. FINDINGS: Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm and 8/9 pm reduced R by 34.3% (27.9-40.2) and 18.9% (12.04-25.3), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 42.2% (37.3-47.3) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions. INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of weather while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making. | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - ANR-10-LABX-0062 | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - ANR-16-CONV-0005 | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Dynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution 3.0 United States | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/ | * |
| dc.subject.en | COVID-19 | |
| dc.subject.en | Non-pharmaceutical interventions | |
| dc.subject.en | Vaccination | |
| dc.subject.en | Weather | |
| dc.subject.en | Reproduction number | |
| dc.subject.en | Regression model | |
| dc.title.en | Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France | |
| dc.title.alternative | BMC Infect Dis | en_US |
| dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1186/s12879-023-08106-1 | en_US |
| dc.subject.hal | Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie | en_US |
| dc.identifier.pubmed | 36997873 | en_US |
| bordeaux.journal | BMC Infectious Diseases | en_US |
| bordeaux.volume | 23 | en_US |
| bordeaux.hal.laboratories | Bordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219 | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
| bordeaux.institution | INSERM | en_US |
| bordeaux.team | SISTM_BPH | en_US |
| bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
| bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
| hal.export | false | |
| dc.rights.cc | Pas de Licence CC | en_US |
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