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Geographical variation in climatic drivers of the pine processionary moth population dynamics

hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorTOIGO, Maude
hal.structure.identifierUniversité de Bordeaux [UB]
dc.contributor.authorBARRAQUAND, Frédéric
hal.structure.identifierCentre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
dc.contributor.authorBARNAGAUD, Jean-Yves
hal.structure.identifierDépartement de la Santé des Forêts
dc.contributor.authorPIOU, Dominique
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorJACTEL, Herve
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn0378-1127
dc.description.abstractEnGeographical variation in forest insect sensitivity to environmental conditions is often overlooked. Yet considering regional variation in response to climate is necessary to better predict the consequences of climate change on pest population dynamics and associated damage. We investigated the climatic drivers of demographic fluctuations in a forest tree defoliator, the pine pro cessionary moth (PPM), in 8 biogeographical regions in France. We studied the effects of precipitation and temperature for both cold and warm periods, in accordance with PPM biology. We trained second-order log linear models of infestation dynamics based on records spanning over 32 years (1981-2014) and 1239 forest plots, and tested their forecast accuracy on two additional years (2013-2014). PPM population growth rate decreased with higher precipitations in 5 regions and increased with increasing temperatures in the cold period in 4 regions. The magnitude and direction of temperature effects in the warm period varied among biogeographical regions. Our results also revealed that PPM population dynamics were largely triggered by density-dependent factors independent from climatic drivers. Short-term forecasts were generally accurate irrespective of the inclusion of climatic variables into the models. To better predict the consequences of climate change on insect population dynamics, it is advisable to take geographical variability of species response into account and develop regional forecasting models.
dc.description.sponsorshipCOntinental To coastal Ecosystems: evolution, adaptability and governance - ANR-10-LABX-0045
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.subject.enInsect
dc.subject.enPine processionary moth
dc.subject.enOutbreaks
dc.subject.enForecast
dc.subject.enTime series
dc.subject.enClimate change
dc.title.enGeographical variation in climatic drivers of the pine processionary moth population dynamics
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.foreco.2017.08.024
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement/Biodiversité et Ecologie
bordeaux.journalForest Ecology and Management
bordeaux.page141-155
bordeaux.volume404
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02619785
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02619785v1
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