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Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees

hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorVITASSE, Yann
hal.structure.identifierUniversité Paris-Sud - Paris 11 [UP11]
hal.structure.identifierCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique [CNRS]
dc.contributor.authorFRANÇOIS, Christophe
hal.structure.identifierUniversité Paris-Sud - Paris 11 [UP11]
dc.contributor.authorDELPIERRE, Nicolas
hal.structure.identifierUniversité Paris-Sud - Paris 11 [UP11]
hal.structure.identifierCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique [CNRS]
dc.contributor.authorDUFRENE, Eric
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorKREMER, Antoine
hal.structure.identifierCentre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive [CEFE]
dc.contributor.authorCHUINE, Isabelle
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
dc.contributor.authorDELZON, Sylvain
dc.date.issued2011
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.description.abstractEnModelling phenology is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on the length of the canopy duration and the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. Focusing on six dominant European tree species, the aims of this study were (i) to examine the accuracy of different leaf phenology models to simulate the onset and ending of the leafy season, with particular emphasis on the putative role of chilling to release winter bud dormancy and (ii) to predict seasonal shifts for the 21st century in response to climate warming. Models testing and validation were done for each species considering 2 or 3 years of phenological observations acquired over a large elevational gradient (1500 m range, 57 populations). Flushing models were either based solely on forcing temperatures (1-phase models) or both on chilling and forcing temperatures (2-phases models). Leaf senescence models were based on both temperature and photoperiod. We show that most flushing models are able to predict accurately the observed flushing dates. The 1-phase models are as efficient as 2-phases models for most species suggesting that chilling temperatures are currently sufficient to fully release bud dormancy. However, our predictions for the 21st century highlight that chilling temperature could be insufficient for some species at low elevation. Overall, flushing is expected to advance in the next decades but this trend substantially differed between species (from 0 to 2.4 days per decade). The prediction of leaf senescence appears more challenging, as the proposed models work properly for only two out of four deciduous species, for which senescence is expected to be delayed in the future (from 1.4 to 2.3 days per decade). These trends to earlier spring leafing and later autumn senescence are likely to affect the competitive balance between species. For instance, simulations over the 21st century predict a stronger lengthening of the canopy duration for Quercus petraea than for Fagus sylvatica, suggesting that shifts in the elevational distributions of these species might occur.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Masson
dc.subjectPHENOLOGICAL MODELS
dc.subjectFRAXINUS EXCELSIOR
dc.subjectILEX AQUIFOLIUM
dc.subjectQUERCUS PETRAEA
dc.subjectERABLE FAUX PLATANE
dc.subjectHOUX
dc.subjectCHENE ROUVRE
dc.subjectQUERCUS SESSILIFLORA
dc.subject.enCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject.enCANOPY DURATION
dc.subject.enFOREST
dc.subject.enELEVATIONAL GRADIENT
dc.subject.enSAPIN ARGENTE
dc.subject.enHETRE COMMUN
dc.title.enAssessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.03.003
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Sciences agricoles/Sylviculture, foresterie
bordeaux.journalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
bordeaux.page969-980
bordeaux.volume151
bordeaux.issue7
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-02649173
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-02649173v1
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