Comparative evaluation of methodologies for estimating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the context of COVID-19: a simulation study
GANSER, Iris
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
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Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
GANSER, Iris
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
THIEBAUT, Rodolphe
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
PRAGUE, Melanie
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
< Reduce
Statistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
Bordeaux population health [BPH]
Language
EN
Article de revue
This item was published in
American Journal of Epidemiology. 2025-04-28
English Abstract
Numerous studies assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 have produced conflicting results, partly due to methodological differences. This study aims to clarify these ...Read more >
Numerous studies assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 have produced conflicting results, partly due to methodological differences. This study aims to clarify these discrepancies by comparing two frequently used approaches in terms of parameter bias and confidence interval coverage of NPI effectiveness parameters. We compared two-step approaches, where NPI effects are regressed on by-products of a first analysis, such as the effective reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_t$, with more integrated models that jointly estimate NPI effects and transmission rates in a single-step approach. We simulated datasets with mechanistic and an agent-based models and analyzed them with both mechanistic models and a two-step regression procedure. In the latter, ${\mathcal{R}}_t$ was estimated first and then used as the outcome in a linear regression with NPI variables as predictors. Mechanistic models consistently outperformed two-step regressions, exhibiting minimal bias (0-5%) and accurate confidence interval coverage. Conversely, the two-step regression showed bias up to 25%, with significantly lower-than-nominal confidence interval coverage, reflecting challenges in uncertainty propagation. We identified additional challenges in the two-step regression method, such high depletion of susceptibles and time lags in observational data. Our findings suggest caution when using two-step regression methods for estimating NPI effectiveness.Read less <
English Keywords
Dynamical Models
Non-Linear Mixed Effects Models
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Reproductive Number
Simulations
ANR Project
University of Bordeaux Graduate School in Digital Public Health - ANR-17-EURE-0019
Initiative for the creation of a Vaccine Research Institute - ANR-10-LABX-0077
Initiative for the creation of a Vaccine Research Institute - ANR-10-LABX-0077