Integration of time-dependent covariates in recurrent events modelling: application to failures on drinking water networks
Language
en
Article de revue
This item was published in
Journal de la Société Française de Statistique. 2014, vol. 155, n° 3, p. 62-77
Société Française de Statistique et Société Mathématique de France
English Abstract
The standard Linear Extended Yule Process is a well-adapted stochastic model for water pipes failure modelling, as it takes into account the past number of pipe failures, the ageing and the effects of covariates in the ...Read more >
The standard Linear Extended Yule Process is a well-adapted stochastic model for water pipes failure modelling, as it takes into account the past number of pipe failures, the ageing and the effects of covariates in the failure rate. But fluctuations of failures along time in water network show the limits of the model, which does not consider time-dependent covariates, like frost effect. An improvement of the model actually used in a standard tool such as {\it PREVOIR$\copyright$ Canalisation} is therefore proposed that considers a time dependent covariate. This allows for dramatically improving the predictions of the number of pipe failures according to the climate.Read less <
English Keywords
Dynamical intensity of counting process
Linear Extension of Yule Process (LEYP)
Time-dependent covariate
water network failure models
Origin
Hal imported