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North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorSMITH, Doug M.
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
hal.structure.identifierCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] [EMPS]
dc.contributor.authorSCAIFE, A.
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorEADE, Rosie
hal.structure.identifierCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC]
dc.contributor.authorATHANASIADIS, P.
hal.structure.identifierCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC]
dc.contributor.authorBELLUCCI, Alessio
hal.structure.identifierBjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR]
dc.contributor.authorBETHKE, I.
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorBILBAO, Roberto
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorBORCHERT, Leonard F.
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorCARON, L.-P.
hal.structure.identifierBjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR]
hal.structure.identifierNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC]
dc.contributor.authorCOUNILLON, F.
hal.structure.identifierNational Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR]
dc.contributor.authorDANABASOGLU, Gokhan
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorDELWORTH, T. L.
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
hal.structure.identifierInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies [ICREA]
dc.contributor.authorDOBLAS-REYES, Francisco
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorDUNSTONE, Nick
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorESTELLA-PEREZ, Victor
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorFLAVONI, Simona
hal.structure.identifierMet Office Hadley Centre [MOHC]
dc.contributor.authorHERMANSON, L.
hal.structure.identifierBjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR]
hal.structure.identifierNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC]
dc.contributor.authorKEENLYSIDE, Noel S.
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorKHARIN, V.
hal.structure.identifierAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] [AORI]
dc.contributor.authorKIMOTO, M.
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorMERRYFIELD, W.
hal.structure.identifierOcéan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM]
dc.contributor.authorMIGNOT, Juliette
hal.structure.identifierDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Fukuoka]
hal.structure.identifierJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology [JAMSTEC]
dc.contributor.authorMOCHIZUKI, T.
hal.structure.identifierMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M]
dc.contributor.authorMODALI, K.
dc.contributor.authorMONERIE, P.-A.
hal.structure.identifierMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M]
dc.contributor.authorMÜLLER, W.
hal.structure.identifierCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC]
dc.contributor.authorNICOLÍ, D.
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Pablo
hal.structure.identifierDeutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] [DWD]
dc.contributor.authorPANKATZ, K.
hal.structure.identifierMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M]
dc.contributor.authorPOHLMANN, Holger
dc.contributor.authorROBSON, Jon
hal.structure.identifierCentro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC]
dc.contributor.authorRUGGIERI, Paolo
hal.structure.identifierCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma]
dc.contributor.authorSOSPEDRA-ALFONSO, Reinel
hal.structure.identifierEnvironnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC]
dc.contributor.authorSWINGEDOUW, Didier
hal.structure.identifierNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC]
dc.contributor.authorWANG, Yiguo
hal.structure.identifierBarcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS]
dc.contributor.authorWILD, Simon
hal.structure.identifierNational Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR]
dc.contributor.authorYEAGER, Stephen
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorYANG, Xiaosong
hal.structure.identifierNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL]
dc.contributor.authorZHANG, L.
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-27T10:32:53Z
dc.date.available2024-03-27T10:32:53Z
dc.date.issued2020-07-30
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/189011
dc.description.abstractEnQuantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7,8,9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.title.enNorth Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0en_US
dc.subject.halPhysique [physics]/Physique [physics]/Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeEuropean Climate Prediction systemen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropeBlue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climaten_US
bordeaux.journalNatureen_US
bordeaux.page796-800en_US
bordeaux.volume583en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.issue7818en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.teamPALEOen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
bordeaux.import.sourcehal
hal.identifierhal-02951661
hal.version1
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exportfalse
workflow.import.sourcehal
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.date=2020-07-30&rft.volume=583&rft.issue=7818&rft.spage=796-800&rft.epage=796-800&rft.eissn=0028-0836&rft.issn=0028-0836&rft.au=SMITH,%20Doug%20M.&SCAIFE,%20A.&EADE,%20Rosie&ATHANASIADIS,%20P.&BELLUCCI,%20Alessio&rft.genre=article


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