dc.rights.license | open | en_US |
hal.structure.identifier | Met Office Hadley Centre [MOHC] | |
dc.contributor.author | SMITH, Doug M. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Met Office Hadley Centre [MOHC] | |
hal.structure.identifier | College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] [EMPS] | |
dc.contributor.author | SCAIFE, A. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Met Office Hadley Centre [MOHC] | |
dc.contributor.author | EADE, Rosie | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC] | |
dc.contributor.author | ATHANASIADIS, P. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC] | |
dc.contributor.author | BELLUCCI, Alessio | |
hal.structure.identifier | Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR] | |
dc.contributor.author | BETHKE, I. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS] | |
dc.contributor.author | BILBAO, Roberto | |
hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
dc.contributor.author | BORCHERT, Leonard F. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS] | |
dc.contributor.author | CARON, L.-P. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC] | |
dc.contributor.author | COUNILLON, F. | |
hal.structure.identifier | National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR] | |
dc.contributor.author | DANABASOGLU, Gokhan | |
hal.structure.identifier | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] | |
dc.contributor.author | DELWORTH, T. L. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies [ICREA] | |
dc.contributor.author | DOBLAS-REYES, Francisco | |
hal.structure.identifier | Met Office Hadley Centre [MOHC] | |
dc.contributor.author | DUNSTONE, Nick | |
hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
dc.contributor.author | ESTELLA-PEREZ, Victor | |
hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
dc.contributor.author | FLAVONI, Simona | |
hal.structure.identifier | Met Office Hadley Centre [MOHC] | |
dc.contributor.author | HERMANSON, L. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research [BCCR] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC] | |
dc.contributor.author | KEENLYSIDE, Noel S. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma] | |
dc.contributor.author | KHARIN, V. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] [AORI] | |
dc.contributor.author | KIMOTO, M. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma] | |
dc.contributor.author | MERRYFIELD, W. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Océan et variabilité du climat [VARCLIM] | |
dc.contributor.author | MIGNOT, Juliette | |
hal.structure.identifier | Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Fukuoka] | |
hal.structure.identifier | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology [JAMSTEC] | |
dc.contributor.author | MOCHIZUKI, T. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M] | |
dc.contributor.author | MODALI, K. | |
dc.contributor.author | MONERIE, P.-A. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M] | |
dc.contributor.author | MÜLLER, W. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC] | |
dc.contributor.author | NICOLÍ, D. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS] | |
dc.contributor.author | ORTEGA, Pablo | |
hal.structure.identifier | Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] [DWD] | |
dc.contributor.author | PANKATZ, K. | |
hal.structure.identifier | Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie [MPI-M] | |
dc.contributor.author | POHLMANN, Holger | |
dc.contributor.author | ROBSON, Jon | |
hal.structure.identifier | Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] [CMCC] | |
dc.contributor.author | RUGGIERI, Paolo | |
hal.structure.identifier | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis [CCCma] | |
dc.contributor.author | SOSPEDRA-ALFONSO, Reinel | |
hal.structure.identifier | Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques [EPOC] | |
dc.contributor.author | SWINGEDOUW, Didier | |
hal.structure.identifier | Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] [NERSC] | |
dc.contributor.author | WANG, Yiguo | |
hal.structure.identifier | Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion [BSC-CNS] | |
dc.contributor.author | WILD, Simon | |
hal.structure.identifier | National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] [NCAR] | |
dc.contributor.author | YEAGER, Stephen | |
hal.structure.identifier | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] | |
dc.contributor.author | YANG, Xiaosong | |
hal.structure.identifier | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] | |
dc.contributor.author | ZHANG, L. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-27T10:32:53Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-03-27T10:32:53Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-07-30 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0028-0836 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/189011 | |
dc.description.abstractEn | Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1,2,3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7,8,9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade. | |
dc.language.iso | EN | en_US |
dc.title.en | North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply | |
dc.type | Article de revue | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0 | en_US |
dc.subject.hal | Physique [physics]/Physique [physics]/Géophysique [physics.geo-ph] | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorshipEurope | European Climate Prediction system | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorshipEurope | Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat | en_US |
bordeaux.journal | Nature | en_US |
bordeaux.page | 796-800 | en_US |
bordeaux.volume | 583 | en_US |
bordeaux.hal.laboratories | EPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805 | en_US |
bordeaux.issue | 7818 | en_US |
bordeaux.institution | Université de Bordeaux | en_US |
bordeaux.institution | CNRS | en_US |
bordeaux.team | PALEO | en_US |
bordeaux.peerReviewed | oui | en_US |
bordeaux.inpress | non | en_US |
bordeaux.import.source | hal | |
hal.identifier | hal-02951661 | |
hal.version | 1 | |
hal.popular | non | en_US |
hal.audience | Internationale | en_US |
hal.export | false | |
workflow.import.source | hal | |
dc.rights.cc | Pas de Licence CC | en_US |
bordeaux.COinS | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.date=2020-07-30&rft.volume=583&rft.issue=7818&rft.spage=796-800&rft.epage=796-800&rft.eissn=0028-0836&rft.issn=0028-0836&rft.au=SMITH,%20Doug%20M.&SCAIFE,%20A.&EADE,%20Rosie&ATHANASIADIS,%20P.&BELLUCCI,%20Alessio&rft.genre=article | |