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dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorGANSER, Iris
dc.contributor.authorBUCKERIDGE, David L
dc.contributor.authorHEFFERNAN, Jane
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorPRAGUE, Melanie
hal.structure.identifierStatistics In System biology and Translational Medicine [SISTM]
hal.structure.identifierBordeaux population health [BPH]
dc.contributor.authorTHIEBAUT, Rodolphe
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-15T09:15:07Z
dc.date.available2024-03-15T09:15:07Z
dc.date.issued2024-03-01
dc.identifier.issn1878-0067 (Electronic) 1878-0067 (Linking)en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/188807
dc.description.abstractEnBACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. METHODS: To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout. RESULTS: The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74 % (69-77) and 11 % (9-18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68 % (66-69) vs. 48 % (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15 % (12-18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 168 % (95 % prediction interval (PI) 70-315) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 300 % (133-492) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507-204,249) and 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative for vaccine availability.
dc.description.sponsorshipInitiative for the creation of a Vaccine Research Institute - ANR-10-LABX-0077en_US
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/*
dc.subject.enCOVID-19
dc.subject.enDynamics
dc.subject.enEpidemics
dc.subject.enMathematical model
dc.subject.enNon-pharmaceutical interventions
dc.subject.enSARS-CoV2
dc.subject.enVaccines
dc.title.enEstimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: A modelling study
dc.title.alternativeEpidemicsen_US
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100744en_US
dc.subject.halSciences du Vivant [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieen_US
dc.identifier.pubmed38324970en_US
bordeaux.journalEpidemicsen_US
bordeaux.page100744en_US
bordeaux.volume46en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesBordeaux Population Health Research Center (BPH) - UMR 1219en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionINSERMen_US
bordeaux.institutionINRIAen_US
bordeaux.teamSISTM_BPHen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
hal.identifierhal-04505758
hal.version1
hal.date.transferred2024-03-15T09:15:11Z
hal.popularnonen_US
hal.audienceInternationaleen_US
hal.exporttrue
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Epidemics&rft.date=2024-03-01&rft.volume=46&rft.spage=100744&rft.epage=100744&rft.eissn=1878-0067%20(Electronic)%201878-0067%20(Linking)&rft.issn=1878-0067%20(Electronic)%201878-0067%20(Linking)&rft.au=GANSER,%20Iris&BUCKERIDGE,%20David%20L&HEFFERNAN,%20Jane&PRAGUE,%20Melanie&THIEBAUT,%20Rodolphe&rft.genre=article


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