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Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

hal.structure.identifierNicolaus Copernicus University [Toruń]
dc.contributor.authorPUCHAŁKA, Radosław
hal.structure.identifierPolska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences [PAN]
dc.contributor.authorPAŹ-DYDERSKA, Sonia
hal.structure.identifierPolska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences [PAN]
dc.contributor.authorJAGODZIŃSKI, Andrzej
hal.structure.identifierCzech Academy of Sciences [Prague] [CAS]
dc.contributor.authorSÁDLO, Jiří
hal.structure.identifierCzech Academy of Sciences [Prague] [CAS]
dc.contributor.authorVÍTKOVÁ, Michaela
dc.contributor.authorKLISZ, Marcin
hal.structure.identifierNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine = Національна академія наук України = Académie nationale des sciences d'Ukraine [NASU / НАН України]
dc.contributor.authorKONIAKIN, Serhii
hal.structure.identifierNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine = Національна академія наук України = Académie nationale des sciences d'Ukraine [NASU / НАН України]
dc.contributor.authorPROKOPUK, Yulia
hal.structure.identifierBiodiversité, Gènes & Communautés [BioGeCo]
hal.structure.identifierNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine = Національна академія наук України = Académie nationale des sciences d'Ukraine [NASU / НАН України]
dc.contributor.authorNETSVETOV, Maksym
hal.structure.identifierTransilvania University of Brasov
dc.contributor.authorNICOLESCU, Valeriu-Norocel
hal.structure.identifierBulgarian Academy of Sciences [BAS]
dc.contributor.authorZLATANOV, Tzvetan
dc.contributor.authorMIONSKOWSKI, Marcin
hal.structure.identifierPolska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences [PAN]
dc.contributor.authorDYDERSKI, Marcin
dc.date.issued2023-10
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.description.abstractEnAlien tree species are considered both a threat to nature conservation and a base for forest management. We compiled species occurrences from biodiversity databases, forest inventories, and literature data. We modeled the availability of potential niches using the MaxEnt method and bioclimatic variables for current conditions, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080 periods. We used four climate scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP485. The results confirm our hypotheses that, (i) coniferous species will contract, and deciduous trees will expand their climatic niche, (ii) a significant part of the areas where the studied species currently occur will be outside their climatic optimum in the coming decades; (iii) changes in the climatic optimum distribution will be greater in the 2041-2060 period than in 2061-2080. These predicted shifts are relevant for evidence-based management in sites already occupied by the studied alien trees. Our results are also relevant to the development of prevention and early detection measures in areas predicted to become climatically suitable for the studied species.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Masson
dc.subject.enMaxEnt
dc.subject.enIntroduced species
dc.subject.enSSPs scenarios
dc.subject.enConifers
dc.subject.enDeciduous trees
dc.title.enPredicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe
dc.typeArticle de revue
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnement
bordeaux.journalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
bordeaux.page109650
bordeaux.volume341
bordeaux.peerReviewedoui
hal.identifierhal-04207281
hal.version1
hal.popularnon
hal.audienceInternationale
hal.origin.linkhttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr//hal-04207281v1
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