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dc.rights.licenseopenen_US
dc.contributor.authorD'ANNA, Maurizio
dc.contributor.authorIDIER, Deborah
dc.contributor.authorCASTELLE, Bruno
IDREF: 087596520
dc.contributor.authorROHMER, Jeremy
dc.contributor.authorCAGIGAL, Laura
dc.contributor.authorMENDEZ, Fernando J.
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-08T15:28:38Z
dc.date.available2022-11-08T15:28:38Z
dc.date.issued2022-08
dc.identifier.issn0378-3839en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/170235
dc.description.abstractEnCoastal communities are currently facing the challenge of climate change and coastal retreat. While scientists are moving towards ensemble-modelling approaches to address uncertainties on shoreline evolution predictions, they rarely account for the stochastic nature of wave conditions across a variety of temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, seasonal, and interannual). In this contribution, we investigate the effects of the inherent variability of wave conditions on past and future multi-decadal shoreline evolution at the cross-shore transport dominated beach of Truc Vert (France). Using a climate-based wave emulator and variance decomposition method, we address the relative impacts of uncertain wave chronology, sea-level rise and model free parameters on modelled shoreline change, while accounting for possible correlations and interactions among the input variables. This work is done for two different wave-driven equilibrium models. The results show that the equilibrium shoreline models respond differently to the ensemble wave forcing, so that the choice of the modelling approach is critical to long-term modelled shoreline variations and the related uncertainties. We find that the modelled shoreline variance is primarily driven by the uncertain wave chronology until mid-21st century, while the uncertainties on future sea-level rise become dominant after 2060 in all the simulated scenarios. We also found that interactions and correlations among the uncertain variables can affect the estimation of shoreline predictions uncertainties. Finally, we provide a perspective on the application of non-stationary wave-related model parameters as a future research avenue for understanding uncertainties in modelled shoreline position.
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.subject.enEnsemble wave forcing
dc.subject.enequilibrium shoreline models
dc.subject.ensea-level rise
dc.subject.enshoreline modelling
dc.subject.enTruc Vert
dc.title.enEffects of Stochastic Wave Forcing on Probabilistic Equilibrium Shoreline Modelling Across the 21 st Century Including Sea-Level Rise
dc.typeArticle de revueen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104149en_US
dc.subject.halSciences de l'environnementen_US
bordeaux.journalCoastal Engineeringen_US
bordeaux.volume175en_US
bordeaux.hal.laboratoriesEPOC : Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux - UMR 5805en_US
bordeaux.institutionUniversité de Bordeauxen_US
bordeaux.institutionCNRSen_US
bordeaux.peerReviewedouien_US
bordeaux.inpressnonen_US
hal.identifierhal-03678556
hal.version1
hal.exportfalse
dc.rights.ccPas de Licence CCen_US
bordeaux.COinSctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Coastal%20Engineering&rft.date=2022-08&rft.volume=175&rft.eissn=0378-3839&rft.issn=0378-3839&rft.au=D'ANNA,%20Maurizio&IDIER,%20Deborah&CASTELLE,%20Bruno&ROHMER,%20Jeremy&CAGIGAL,%20Laura&rft.genre=article


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