Forecasting Bordeaux wine prices using state-space methods
CARDEBAT, Jean Marie
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
CARDEBAT, Jean Marie
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
< Reduce
Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales [Larefi]
Language
EN
Article de revue
This item was published in
Applied Economics. 2018-05-14, vol. 50, n° 47, p. 5110-5121
English Abstract
Generic Bordeaux red wine (basic claret) can be regarded as being similar to an agricultural commodity. Production volumes are substantial, they are traded at high frequency and the quality of the product is relatively ...Read more >
Generic Bordeaux red wine (basic claret) can be regarded as being similar to an agricultural commodity. Production volumes are substantial, they are traded at high frequency and the quality of the product is relatively homogeneous. Unlike other commodities and the top-end wines (which represent only 3% of the traded volume), there is no futures market for generic Bordeaux wine. Reliable forecasts of prices can to large extent replace this information deficiency and improve the functioning of the market. We use state-space methods with monthly data to obtain a univariate forecasting model for the average price. The estimates highlight the stochastic trend and the seasonality present in the evolution of the price over the period 1999 to 2016. The model predicts the path of wine prices out of sample reasonably well, suggesting that this approach is useful for making reasonably accurate forecasts of future price movements.Read less <
Keywords
state-space methods
forecasting
English Keywords
Wine prices